thelema
Impact markets on Arc. Trade how an event moves any asset like stock, BTC, oil not just yes/no.
Demo
About
most prediction markets answer one question: will something happen? thelema asks the next one: okay, but what does that event actually do to an asset? the demo explores whether allowing advanced AI-chip sales to china could affect a synthetic nvidia index. it shows the probability of the event, the asset’s value in the YES world, its value in the NO world, and the impact gap between both futures. users can express a view on either the event or the asset using test USDC on Arc. sNVDA is only a synthetic testnet index—there are no real nvidia shares, real-world custody, or investment promises involved.
How it's made
thelema runs two connected markets on Arc Testnet. one prices the probability of the event with binary YES and NO tokens. the other prices the synthetic asset separately in each possible world. the app combines those pools to show probability, asset-if-YES, asset-if-NO, and the difference between them. the contracts are written in solidity and use USDC for collateral, liquidity, gas and settlement. each complete asset set includes an explicit residual claim, so the full collateral stays accounted for instead of disappearing when the final index is below its cap. the frontend uses react, typescript and viem, with users signing Arc transactions directly from their wallet. the graph provides live cross-protocol ETH market context from uniswap v3 and sushiswap through the same standardized messari DEX schema. it is clearly labelled as context—not fake sNVDA pricing. chainlink CRE handles the confidential order-size design, where a private maximum controls how much of a requested trade can become public. the workflow compiles to WASM and was run through the official CRE simulator. live remote deployment is still waiting on chainlink access, so we document that boundary honestly instead of mocking a successful execution.