Piro
An autonomous agent that watches prediction markets and rewires v4 swap fees before risk hits LPs
Demo
About
A Chainlink CRE workflow polls Polymarket's CLOB API every 60 seconds for the probability of "Will ETH dip to $1,600?", classifies it into Green/Amber/Red tiers, and publishes the tier on-chain to a RiskSignal contract via writeReport. The Uniswap v4 PredictionHook reads this tier in beforeSwap and returns a dynamic fee override (0.30% for Green, 1.00% for Amber) or reverts the swap entirely on Red. A 5-minute staleness window auto-escalates tiers if the CRE workflow stops updating, ensuring fail-safe behavior.
How it's made
The project has four Solidity contracts built with Foundry, a Chainlink CRE TypeScript workflow, and a zero-dependency frontend dashboard. **RiskSignal** is an Ownable contract that stores the current risk tier (Green/Amber/Red), a uint64 timestamp, and a uint16 confidence value in a single storage slot. It exposes `getEffectiveTier()` which handles staleness escalation — if `block.timestamp - updatedAt > STALE_WINDOW (300s)`, the tier is bumped up one level. **PredictionHook** implements the `IHooks` interface directly (BaseHook was removed from v4-periphery, so we wrote no-op stubs for all unused callbacks). Only `beforeSwap` is active — it reads the effective tier from RiskSignal and returns `BeforeSwapDelta` with `lpFeeOverride` set via `toFee()` for Green/Amber, or reverts with `SwapBlockedRedTier()` for Red. The pool is initialized with `DYNAMIC_FEE_FLAG` so the hook can override fees. The hook address was mined via CREATE2 through the Deterministic Deployer Proxy (`0x4e59...56C`) to encode the `beforeSwap` permission bit in the address. **PredictionRouter** implements `IUnlockCallback` for `PoolManager.unlock()` — it performs the swap, settles input tokens, and takes output tokens, with slippage and deadline checks. **RiskSignalReceiver** implements Chainlink's `IReceiver` interface to decode CRE `writeReport` payloads — it validates the forwarder address and function selector, then forwards `setTier(tier, confidence)` to RiskSignal. The CRE workflow uses the Chainlink CRE SDK: `CronCapability` triggers every 60 seconds, `HTTPClient` fetches from Polymarket's CLOB API with consensus aggregation (median across DON nodes), a classify step maps probability to tier, and `EVMClient.writeReport` publishes to the receiver on Arbitrum Sepolia. We switched from Polymarket's Gamma API to the CLOB API because Gamma doesn't reliably filter by condition_id. The frontend is a single `index.html` with inline CSS/JS that reads live on-chain state via raw `eth_call` RPC (no ethers/viem dependency) and fetches Polymarket probability client-side, auto-refreshing every 30 seconds. All 24 Foundry tests pass, CRE simulation succeeds end-to-end, and we have on-chain transaction proof of swaps under all three tiers on Arbitrum Sepolia.