Wisdom of Markets
The easiest way to bet
About
The problem it solves Wisdom of Markets is solving two major problems: 1. Currently, there is no easy way for anyone to create a bet about anything that might be verifiable in the future. 2. The range of bets possible on traditional prediction markets is very limited; they only allow bets on clearly defined outcomes. Most real-world events aren’t like this. Our AI oracle greatly expands the scope and complexity of possible bets. # **Our Vision** **A bet is an important tool to reveal real beliefs, alignment, and commitment**. It allows both humans and AI to aggregate knowledge, build trust, and collaborate. We want to make it effortless for anyone to create a bet about anything, anywhere—starting with crypto-native social apps like The Base App and Farcaster. Just write your bet in plain English; our AI resolves it on a future date. Long-term, our goal is to let people bet on anything, on any platform. Just message our AI agent wherever you are. The agent gathers liquidity by connecting to various prediction market platforms, and creates new markets if needed. But the real breakthrough comes from what's possible when AI oracles resolve these bets. Suddenly, we're not limited to simple, clear-cut questions. We can unlock entirely new types of markets and incentives. # **What AI Oracles Enable** ## 1. Markets for Complex Claims Current limitation: Traditional prediction markets can only bet on events that have a clearly defined outcome (e.g. election results, sport scores). However, the large majority of events are not like this. Enabled by AI: An AI oracle can cheaply read hundreds of papers, news and data points to form a good educated opinion about a complex event (”did policy X improve education quality?”). This unlocks markets around real-world policy, research quality, product effectiveness and the list goes on. Moreover, with an AI oracle everyone agrees on what they are betting on. We agree on the prompt, on the AI models, on the tools it has access to, and on the date the prompt will be evaluated. ## 2. The Hindsight Bet We’d make better decisions today if we could go to the future, collect information, and then return to the present. While time travel isn’t an option, we can bet on what a person in the future would have decided today with the benefit of hindsight. For example, “knowing what you know in 2027, would have you preferred to learn React or Vue in 2025?”. An AI oracle in 2027 can answer with the benefit of everything that happened in the years after. We can bet today on what that judgment will be. This enables a new kind of decision-support market. Unlike Futarchy, which requires multiple markets per decision (e.g. “Will policy X be implemented?” and “If X is implemented, will GDP rise?”), hindsight markets require just one: what the AI will conclude in the future. That’s far simpler - and far more likely to attract liquidity. ## 3. The Prestige Futures This idea comes from [Robin Hanson](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/more-academic-prestige-futureshtml) and is mentioned in Vitalik’s Info Finance [post](https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2024/11/09/infofinance.html). It’s about betting on what future historians will think about the impact of research papers, people, or projects. If you believe a certain paper will be seen as highly influential in the future, you can bet on it now. The market becomes a real-time display of prestige. AI oracles are a perfect fit to act as transparent "future historians". I believe this idea could also be slightly modified to enable new ways to do retroactive funding. Let’s say the Ethereum Foundation wants to give 10 ETH in funding to the project that improves Ethereum decentralisation the most by 2027. For example, imagine the Ethereum Foundation wants to reward the project that most improves Ethereum decentralization by 2027. The winner is chosen by an AI oracle after conduncting some "deep research". Any project that registers for funding automatically receives 10 shares, each worth 1 ETH if the project wins, 0 otherwise. These shares can be traded with speculators, before the market resolves, letting projects access funding whenever they need it the most. Smart Contract Address(es) Contracts are live only on Base Testnet: - Exchange address: 0xcE295A90Aa6Fb680eEb293Bd8283eC1B4F5eC104 - Bet Positions: 0x0f241cc433d9D6fEE7c51852c69DDfB8acA66408 - Points ERC20: 0x3Ef371634ddB993cb5677EcC55f839b410AE4172
How it's made
Challenges we ran into Biggest challenge I faced was connecting my Frontend framework (Flutter) with modern crypto libraries (wagmi, viem, etc). To solve this I decided to learn Next.js and migrate the entire project to it.